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Full identifier: https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmShJDAhoUH_Y6GbIIQGpoff4QA-gtRUhLLzc0#author-list

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Minted in Nanopublication

Article: Conflict forecasting and its limits DataScience PositionPaper ScholarlyWork comment approve/disapprove edit as derived nanopublication create new with same template

https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 doi:10.3233/DS-170002 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type is a http://purl.org/spar/fabio/PositionPaper position paper .

https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 doi:10.3233/DS-170002 http://purl.org/dc/terms/title has the title (this is a literal) "Conflict forecasting and its limits" .

https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 doi:10.3233/DS-170002 http://purl.org/dc/terms/abstract has the abstract (this is a literal) "Research on international conflict has mostly focused on explaining events such as the onset or termination of wars, rather than on trying to predict them. Recently, however, forecasts of political phenomena have received growing attention. Predictions of violent events, in particular, have been increasingly accurate using various methods ranging from expert knowledge to quantitative methods and formal modeling. Yet, we know little about the limits of these approaches, even though information about these limits has critical implications for both future research and policy-making. In particular, are our predictive inaccuracies due to limitations of our models, data, or assumptions, in which case improvements should occur incrementally. Or are there aspects of conflicts that will always remain fundamentally unpredictable? After reviewing some of the current approaches to forecasting conflict, I suggest avenues of research that could disentangle the causes of our current predictive failures." .

https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 doi:10.3233/DS-170002 http://purl.org/dc/terms/date has the publication date (this is a literal) "2017-10-17" .

https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 doi:10.3233/DS-170002 http://purl.org/dc/terms/isPartOf is part of the journal with ISSN http://id.crossref.org/issn/2451-8492 2451-8492 .

The journal with ISSN http://id.crossref.org/issn/2451-8492 2451-8492 http://purl.org/dc/terms/title has the title (this is a literal) "Data Science" .

https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 doi:10.3233/DS-170002 http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/volume is in journal volume (this is a literal) "1" .

https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 doi:10.3233/DS-170002 http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/issue is in journal issue (this is a literal) "1-2" .

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS.../author-list This author list This relation links a sequence/list to its element at position 1. http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#_1 has at position 1 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8456-8124 Thomas Chadefaux .

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8456-8124 Thomas Chadefaux http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/name has the name (this is a literal) "Thomas Chadefaux" .

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8456-8124 Thomas Chadefaux http://schema.org/email has the email address (this is a literal) "thomas.chadefaux@tcd.ie" .

https://ror.org/02tyrky19 02tyrky19 http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/name has the name (this is a literal) "Department of Political Science, Trinity College Dublin, 2–3 College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland" .

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8456-8124 Thomas Chadefaux http://schema.org/affiliation has the affiliation https://ror.org/02tyrky19 02tyrky19 .

This is the identifier for the assertion of this nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS.../assertion The assertion above http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo is attributed to https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8456-8124 Thomas Chadefaux .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS... This nanopublication http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/authorList has This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS...#author-list this author list .

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS...#author-list This author list This relation links a sequence/list to its element at position 1. http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#_1 has at position 1 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8456-8124 Thomas Chadefaux .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS... This nanopublication http://purl.org/nanopub/x/supersedes supersedes https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAp1qMzrhc... RAp1qMzrhc .

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1267-0234 Tobias Kuhn http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/name has the name (this is a literal) "Tobias Kuhn" .

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8456-8124 Thomas Chadefaux http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/name has the name (this is a literal) "Thomas Chadefaux" .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS... This nanopublication http://purl.org/dc/terms/creator is created by https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1267-0234 me (Tobias Kuhn) .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS... This nanopublication http://purl.org/dc/terms/license is published under the license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS... This nanopublication http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasNanopubType has the type http://purl.org/spar/fabio/ScholarlyWork ScholarlyWork .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS... This nanopublication http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasNanopubType has the type https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/terms/DataScienceNanopub DataScienceNanopub .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS... This nanopublication http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label has the label (this is a literal) "Article: Conflict forecasting and its limits" .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS... This nanopublication date and time when the nanopublication was created http://purl.org/dc/terms/created was created on (this is a literal) "2025-04-25T11:18:29.878Z" .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS... This nanopublication links to the assertion template that was used to create this nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/o/ntemplate/wasCreatedFromTemplate was created from the assertion template https://w3id.org/np/RAIDm7hi3C... RAIDm7hi3C .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS... This nanopublication links to the provenance template that was used to create this nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/o/ntemplate/wasCreatedFromProvenanceTemplate was created from the provenance template https://w3id.org/np/RA7lSq6MuK... RA7lSq6MuK .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS... This nanopublication links to the publication info template that was used to create this nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/o/ntemplate/wasCreatedFromPubinfoTemplate was created from the publication info template https://w3id.org/np/RA0J4vUn_d... RA0J4vUn_d .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS... This nanopublication the nanopublication consists of an introduction of the given resource http://purl.org/nanopub/x/introduces introduces https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 doi:10.3233/DS-170002 .

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS.../sig sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignatureTarget has as target This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS... this nanopublication .

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS.../sig sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasAlgorithm has the algorithm (this is a literal) "RSA" .

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS.../sig sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasPublicKey has the public key (this is a literal) "MIGfMA0GCSqGSIb3DQEBAQUAA4GNADCBiQKBgQD4Wj537OijfOWVtsHMznuXKISqBhtGDQZfdO6pbb4hg9EHMcUFGTLbWaPrP783PHv8HMAAPjvEkHLaOHMIknqhaIa5236lfBO3r+ljVdYBElBcLvROmwG+ZGtmPNZf7lMhI15xf5TfoaSa84AFRd5J2EXekK6PhaFQhRm1IpSYtwIDAQAB" .

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS.../sig sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignature has the signature (this is a literal) "JdsIM3O7XaOLru11urczdAzyIp0WYentxz1sbSd83NKeZIlIeTnzHHN6yKK8+G9IVIwPOfIp0N87X780ZC4A5bThaMmQZO779weuL8yO5l5dAR0NVinfybUENCFggVKKcP34BKSKegO9RdNuUJO8U1L2q+h7ZiJovff6YNcCNao=" .

This is a local identifier minted within the nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS.../sig sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/signedBy is signed by https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1267-0234 Tobias Kuhn .

This is the identifier for this whole nanopublication. https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAUvUfWmmS... This nanopublication http://purl.org/nanopub/x/wasCreatedAt was created at https://nanodash.knowledgepixels.com/ nanodash.knowledgepixels.com .

Thomas Chadefaux (author), Tobias Kuhn (creator), 25 Apr 2025, 11:18:29 UTC

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