doi:10.3233/DS-170002

Full identifier: https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002

Assigned to 1 class:

References

Nanopublication Part Subject Predicate Object Published By Published On
links a nanopublication to its assertion http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion assertion
doi:10.3233/DS-170002
Tobias Kuhn
2025-04-25T11:18:29.878Z
links a nanopublication to its assertion http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion assertion
doi:10.3233/DS-170002
Tobias Kuhn
2025-04-25T11:18:29.878Z
links a nanopublication to its assertion http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion assertion
doi:10.3233/DS-170002
Conflict forecasting and its limits
Tobias Kuhn
2025-04-25T11:18:29.878Z
links a nanopublication to its assertion http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion assertion
doi:10.3233/DS-170002
2017-10-17
Tobias Kuhn
2025-04-25T11:18:29.878Z
links a nanopublication to its assertion http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion assertion
doi:10.3233/DS-170002
Research on international conflict has mostly focused on explaining events such as the onset or termination of wars, rather than on trying to predict them. Recently, however, forecasts of political phenomena have received growing attention. Predictions of violent events, in particular, have been increasingly accurate using various methods ranging from expert knowledge to quantitative methods and formal modeling. Yet, we know little about the limits of these approaches, even though information about these limits has critical implications for both future research and policy-making. In particular, are our predictive inaccuracies due to limitations of our models, data, or assumptions, in which case improvements should occur incrementally. Or are there aspects of conflicts that will always remain fundamentally unpredictable? After reviewing some of the current approaches to forecasting conflict, I suggest avenues of research that could disentangle the causes of our current predictive failures.
Tobias Kuhn
2025-04-25T11:18:29.878Z
links a nanopublication to its assertion http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion assertion
doi:10.3233/DS-170002
1-2
Tobias Kuhn
2025-04-25T11:18:29.878Z
links a nanopublication to its assertion http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion assertion
doi:10.3233/DS-170002
1
Tobias Kuhn
2025-04-25T11:18:29.878Z
links a nanopublication to its pubinfo http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo pubinfo
doi:10.3233/DS-170002
Tobias Kuhn
2025-04-25T11:18:29.878Z